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Cosima Marriner and Peter Martin
May 22, 2009

THE chairman of Australia’s largest company, BHP Billiton, has contradicted assurances by the Rudd Government, Treasury and Reserve Bank that an economic recovery is imminent, warning instead it will be “protracted and complex”.

Speaking at his old high school in Brisbane yesterday, Don Argus said he was “pessimistic” about prospects for recovery in the short term.

His comments follow spirited defences by Treasury Secretary Ken Henry and Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens of growth forecasts in last week’s federal budget. The economy is projected to grow above 4.5 per cent from the middle of 2011, a forecast economists have questioned and Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull has labelled “completely unbelievable”.

“(Dr Henry and Mr Stevens) have got the levers of the economy,” Mr Argus said. “I’ve got a balance sheet, I’ve got revenue statements, I deal with customers, I’m a contributor to the Australian economy … I’m just calling it from where I see it.”

Mr Stevens tipped on Tuesday that “a recovery will get under way towards the end of the year”. But Mr Argus warned it would be a “pretty tough” 2009 and 2010. “We can hope for recovery. We should also have contingency plans for scenarios where world capital markets continue to provide surprises on the downside.”

He said that while some people would call his comments pessimism, “I prefer to call it caution that 50 years in corporate life engenders … The current outlook is very uncertain.

“It’s very much reliant on the Government, corporate and regulatory response to the global financial crisis. It will be a difficult transition period. Governments and corporates have to pay off debt and rebuild their balance sheets.”

He predicted that Australians who had so far been shielded from the impact of the crisis would start to be affected, as the Government was forced to pay back debt incurred with its stimulus packages. “They can’t do that without budget cuts and increasing taxation.”

Mr Argus based his analysis on an International Monetary Fund report, his own analysis of the 1987 crash, and business conditions BHP is experiencing. “The IMF report makes it easy to conclude that the road to economic recovery will be slow, hence my cautious response to the recent political rhetoric.”

He said the recovery would be under way when financial institutions had access to good liquidity and had dealt with distressed assets, and weak institutions had been recapitalised.

His comments came as it was revealed Australians paid off $19.7 billion of credit card debt in March — the second-biggest amount on record — as $900 and $950 cheques directed at single-income families, carers and parents of children at school went out. The record for card repayments was in December, when stimulus cheques of between $1000 and $2000 went out.

There was also a spending surge in March, with credit cards getting their second-biggest work-out on record, again exceeded only in December. “We’re both spending and saving at the same time,” CommSec economist Savanth Sebastian said.

The next stimulus payments began hitting bank accounts in April, suggesting spending and saving will continue to climb.

Some of the extra spending appears to have gone on cars, passenger vehicle sales up a seasonally adjusted 1.8 per cent in April after months of decline.

The rebound is consistent with a Westpac-Melbourne Institute survey this week showing a rise in consumer sentiment.

Other figures showed that average full-time earnings climbed 5.6 per cent to more than $61,000 in the year to February. But the rate of increase is slowing as fewer hours and less overtime are worked.

“Workers in the public sector are enjoying better conditions than private sector workers,” said Commonwealth Bank economist James McIntyre.

“Public sector households are getting the benefits of significant interest rate cuts, stimulus payments, petrol price falls and tax cuts without the job security concerns.”

Meanwhile, new figures yesterday showed investment in minerals and energy projects hit a record high in April, defying budget forecasts.

http://business.theage.com.au/business/bhp-at-odds-on-recovery-20090521-bh6e.html

May boost industry
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CHINA’S second largest car manufacturer is keen to strike deals with its struggling Australian counterparts, a move that may breathe life into the Rudd Government’s $6 billion restructure of the industry.

The entreaty by Dongfeng Motor Corp, one of China’s big three state-owned car makers, follows its rival Cherry establishing a research centre in Australia, and Australian companies Futuris and Bosch subsidiary PBR using China to manufacture parts.

The brightest spot in China’s exploding automotive manufacturing sector is the green car, with the country leading the world in sales and development of electric vehicles, The Australian reports.

This is understood to be a key area of interest in Australia for Dongfeng, which dovetails nicely with the green big-car component of Canberra’s $6 billion bailout of the sector last year.

Senior Dongfeng executives plan to join a delegation from the company’s home city of Wuhan to Australia in July. The delegation, headed by the Wuhan Communist Party secretary, wants to develop new trade relationships between the 11-million strong city in central China and Australian businesses.

“Dongfeng are very keen to develop strategic partnerships with our auto industry for component supply,” Trade Minister Simon Crean said after a visit to Wuhan last week.

“What we have to encourage – because they are the big growth in autos – is our strength in the auto sector.”

In the past quarter China passed the US in the sales of regular cars for the first time. In April passenger sales rose 37.4 per cent from a year earlier to a record high, according to figures released last Friday.

“They (Dongfeng) are doing a whole lot of joint ventures,” Mr Crean said. “They want to develop their own brands. What we offer therefore is the competitive edge with design and innovation and component supply to help them to achieve that objective.”

Dongfeng already has joint-venture arrangements with Nissan, Renault and Kia. But the Chinese manufacturer’s desire to build its own brands and establish its own supply chains provides an opportunity for Australia, people close to last week’s talks say.

“The Australian auto sector basically since the Button car plan has understood the importance of innovation globally,” Mr Crean said. “Why couldn’t it be engaging with the global behemoth in autos?”

Still, a record number of China’s 61 listed car and parts makers are now posting losses.

As the small cars making up most of the volume in the market add little to manufacturers’ bottom lines, they are looking offshore for growth, while most large Western car makers conduct fire sales to ward off collapse.

Read more at The Australian.
http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,25466393-462,00.html?referrer=email&source=eDM_newspulse

Barry Fitzgerald
May 6, 2009

FORMER high-flyer OZ Minerals is to undergo wholesale board and management change to better reflect its greatly reduced size following the forced asset sales required to rid itself of its debt refinancing woes.

Five of the eight-member board, including chairman Barry Cusack and managing director Andrew Michelmore, plan to ride off elsewhere, but won’t be able to forget their time at OZ in a hurry.

Shareholders’ litigant IMF Australia plans to make sure of that, saying yesterday a $1 billion class action claim being handled by legal firm Maurice Blackburn on behalf of “hundreds” of OZ shareholders remains in the pipeline.

The potential class action was first flagged in December, but nothing has been heard since, and as of yesterday OZ had not received any statement of claim or other documents from IMF or Maurice Blackburn.

IMF would not reveal the proposed timing of the class action but it is believed to want to see OZ complete its $US1.2 billion ($A1.6 billion) in asset sales to China’s Minmetals. The deal is subject to a shareholder vote on June 11. Without the deal, OZ faced the prospect of administration.

OZ was created by the friendly merger of Oxiana and Zinifex last year, implemented by an Oxiana scrip offer for Zinifex.

IMF’s proposed class action involves alleged misleading and deceptive conduct and alleged breaches by OZ of its continuous disclosure obligations between February 28 and December 3 last year. OZ has continued to strongly refute the allegations and plans to vigorously defend itself against any legal action proposed by IMF.

Announcing its board changes yesterday, OZ said director Tony Larkin had submitted his resignation on Monday. Another director, Ronnie Beevor, will not seek re-election at the June 11 meeting.

Assuming the Minmetals deal proceeds, Mr Michelmore will resign and take up a senior executive role with the Chinese group. A search for a replacement managing director is now under way.

Mr Cusack and another director, Peter Mansell, plan to resign from the board once the new managing director is appointed. The slimmed-down OZ would then seek to appoint two replacements, who will face shareholders at OZ’s 2010 annual meeting for election.

The result is that OZ will end up with a board of six, down from the current eight. OZ shares closed 2.5¢ higher at 82¢.

The reporter owns OZ shares and is not party to any class action.

http://business.theage.com.au/business/ceo-and-others-to-go-as-oz-minerals-slims-down-20090505-atyh.html

HENDRIK GOUT
1/05/2009 4:33:00 PM

BHP has today revealed the environmental effects of its giant Olympic Dam project. Hendrik Gout wrote this article ahead of the media lock-up at which the 4000-page document was released.

Incomparable and unimaginable are not synonymous, but Olympic Dam is both. It will be the world’s biggest hole-in-the-ground, the largest copper and uranium quarry on the planet, the highest artificial mountain range on Earth and the richest mine since King Solomon.

All this just a few hours drive from Adelaide. South Australia is about to become the Colossus of Copper, the Midas of Gold. There’s just one niggling problem: the environment.

At three o’clock on Friday afternoon, BHP Billiton flicked a switch and the World Wide Web will instantly host the most massive environmental impact statement Australia has ever seen. Three-years in the making, more than 4000 pages long (110 pages to list just the guidelines), and according to Mines Minister Paul Holloway “the largest document ever prepared in this state”.

That EIS will lay out what BHP reckons are the environmental effects of expanding its Olympic Dam copper, uranium and gold mine near Roxby Downs, in the state’s far north.

By some estimates the resource is worth a trillion dollars and able to produce some 25,000 tonnes of uranium, half a million ounces of gold and one million tonnes of copper a year.

The company will ultimately dig a hole 7.5 kilometres long, five kilometres wide and more than a kilometre deep.

Stacked up, the 44 billion tonnes or so of overburden would effectively create a new mountain range. Depending on its shape, it might be 20 kilometres wide in each direction and almost as high as Mt Lofty’s 720 metres.

If so, the new artificial mountain might create its own micro-climate.

The EIS will have to address hundreds of other issues as well. Journalists will have little time to do more than scan the document when it becomes available at noon – they’ll have to read over 1000 pages an hour during the media lock-up – before their television deadlines tonight.

BHP has said it will not comment on the EIS after the weekend even though reporters can’t possibly read all the documents in the time available.

The report was initially going to be available for public comment for just 40 working days, which Mr Holloway said was more than enough time. Public pressure, led by Greens MP Mark Parnell and Liberal MLC Christine Schaefer, forced the Government to extend that to 14 weeks.

“Even with a 14 week public comment period, the community will still struggle to read and respond to the largest document ever printed in this state,” Mr Parnell said.

So what will the long-awaited report say? It looks at expanding the mine to 750,000 tonnes of copper product a year, three-quarters of its possible ultimate size.

WATER POLLUTION AND THE GULF

Firstly, the EIS will have to address the mine’s water requirements. The existing Olympic Dam mine, a comparatively tiny underground operation, already uses 35 million litres of water a day. It drags this from the Great Artesian Basin: prehistoric underground water which fell as rain on the western side of the Great Dividing Range up to a million years ago. It has since percolated underground, flowing a mere one to three metres a year.

The company pays the state nothing to access this public resource under a special 1982 Act of Parliament which over-rides every other piece of legislation (including safeguards in mining Acts, development Acts and environment protection Acts) passed by Parliament before or even since.

The company is actually licensed to take up to 42 million litres of water a day from the Great Artesian Basin, but even this will not be enough to quench the new mine’s thirst.

Today’s EIS will canvass building a giant desalination plant on the coast of the fragile Upper Spencer Gulf. That plant will produce about 200 million litres a day, 80 of which might be bought by the State Government to supply towns around the Eyre Peninsula. The State Government has committed $125 million and the Commonwealth $120.

This means nearly a quarter of a million dollars of state and federal funds are going into the desalination plant, so both governments have serious EIS issues and responsibilities to address. It means federal Environment Minister Peter Garrett may have the power of veto over the desal plant.

The Gulf fishing industry and environmentalists will closely examine the document to see what it makes of the tens of thousands of litres of super-saline water the plant will release.

“This is the worst possible place to build an internationally-sized desalination plant,” Australian Conservation Foundation campaigner David Noonan said this week. “The Gulf is shallow, low-flushing. It’s the breeding ground of the giant cuttlefish which is extremely sensitive to changes in salinity. The plant should be built on the ocean, not the gulf.”

Adelaide University marine biologist associate professor Bronwyn Gilanders says the sea around Whyalla is actually the world’s largest cuttlefish breeding zone, and that the plant could wipe them out.

“Squids and Cuttlefish are generally short-lived. So they live a year; they breed only once. So if you damage the eggs or affect their reproductive ability then potentially that will have devastating consequences on the population.”

The Independent Weekly has reason to believe that BHP’s EIS will dismiss the threat, and that its research will claim increased salt levels will not affect local sea life.

“Point Lowly is the last place on the SA coast you would put a desal plant,” says Mr Noonan, “and there are alternatives. We could build a reverse osmosis plant at Elliston on Eyre Peninsula’s west coast. Elliston has the ocean flushing that Pt Lowly lacks and enormous potential for year-round wind energy. Taxpayers are paying 20 per cent of the desalination plant’s capital cost and we should also have a big say on where it goes. It’s not good enough to leave it up to BHP.”

BHP wants to build at Port Bonython near Whyalla purely because it’s cheaper than on the ocean coast. The Independent Weekly expects the EIS to say that it will pipe desalinated water about 350 kilometres to the mine. At a cost of about $1.2 million per kilometre, such a pipeline will cost the company more than $400 million and it may want to take the shortest possible route irrespective of environmental concerns along the way. The EIS will talk about the pipeline as well as the plant, and conclude that environmental problems or risks are negligible or manageable.

POWER TO THE PEOPLE

Desalination plants require vast amounts of energy. The Independent Weekly expects the still-secret EIS to say it will need about 75 megawatts to run the plant, and a further 25 megawatts to pump the water from Port Bonython to Olympic Dam.

The EIS is likely to recommend a gas-fired generator to power the desal plant, but the actual mine’s energy requirements are far larger than that. At full production, the mine will use one-third of South Australia’s current electricity requirements. This will affect SA’s energy future for the mine’s 100-year life.

Where will it get the power? BHP is almost certain to say it wants a gas-fired power station at Olympic Dam and buy an increased load off the grid.

Government greenhouse targets set out in the State Strategic Plan want carbon dioxide emissions capped to 108 per cent of the 1990 levels by the year 2012. Premier Mike Rann has also given a commitment to limit CO2 emissions to 60 per cent of 1990 levels by 2050. But the mine’s expansion could increase SA’s total CO2 emissions by more than 10 per cent.

Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has now signed the Kyoto accord which sets similar goals, and that means Peter Garrett may have an influence on energy as well as water.

And then there’s the diesel. The expanded mine will a million litres of diesel a day, or two billion litres, just to reach the ore. The Federal Government is paying BHP a diesel fuel rebate of 18.5 cents a litre, a taxpayer subsidy to the world’s largest mining company.

CONCENTRATE ORE NOT

Open-cut mining is essentially a simple operation: dig it up and offer it for sale. But rather than ship raw earth around the world, mining companies generally process the rock to some degree by concentrating ore on site. Despite early promises, BHP will not go a step further and build a smelter here. Smelting produces mineral in its almost-pure form as well as thousands of direct and indirect jobs.

BHP initially indicated the concentrate would be smelted here and not in China. The Premier believed such assurances. “What we’re negotiating with BHP Billiton for is to make sure that as many jobs are done here in SA, that the work is done here rather than processed offshore,” he said in 2007.

“We’ve been negotiating with BHP Billiton and, despite what I read in one newspaper recently, the negotiations have been proceeding amicably.”

But the newspaper was right. In October 2008 the company finally announced that it had abandoned smelter plans. BHP uranium and Olympic Dam development boss Graeme Hunt said the company had given “very careful consideration” to processing options, and had decided to sell its product as concentrate rather than as refined metal.

“On-site smelting has a high capital cost and increases project execution risk, particularly in the isolated area in which Olympic Dam is established,” he said despite the Premier’s fury over the job losses.

But while the Premier said the Government would strongly oppose the company doing most of the processing overseas in 2007, by 2008 Treasurer Kevin Foley knew he was licked. “We want as much value added as possible to take place at the mine site but that is to be negotiated. One has to be realistic and constructive in negotiations,” Mr Foley acknowledged.

That decision has enormous repercussions. The EIS might say that if it exports 1.6 million tonnes of copper concentrate, that will make 400,000 tonnes of pure copper in China – and a few thousand tonnes of recoverable uranium. A country like China can extract that uranium and use it for nuclear power, and while Mr Rann opposes such a power station here he’s a strong advocate for it elsewhere.

On a visit to China in 2008, the Premier said his confidence had been buoyed by its potential as a uranium market. “Every single meeting I went to was about uranium,” he said. “We have got 50 per cent of the world’s uranium in SA. We are in pole position.”

He may have suddenly been bumped to the back of the grid. The Independent Weekly understands that the Federal Government is planning much tougher safeguards relating to uranium sales to China, even if it’s gift-wrapped in copper concentrate. BHP does not yet have export permits for that uranium. In May next year nuclear non-proliferation nations, Australia included, will meet in New York. Australia may want a new international treaty to make sure Olympic Dam uranium does not end up in Chinese bombs.

THE STING IS IN THE TAILINGS

Concentrated ore contains much higher percentages of gold, uranium and copper than what’s dug out of the ground. The stuff left behind after this process, called tailings, still contains vast quantities of radio-active material. The EIS will go to great length to say this isn’t a problem.

But problem it may be. Tailings have about 80 per cent of the radio-activity of the original ore. They contain radium and other decay products. Tailings are dust. They blow in the wind. There is wind in central Australia. An honest EIS might suggest that tailings have the potential, not to put to fine a point on it, to pollute.

A long way north of Olympic Dam is the Ranger uranium mine in NT’s Kakadu National Park. That mine will close in 2021. Federal Government environmental guidelines specify that the Ranger tailings be re-buried and rendered inactive for 10,000 years.

Peter Garret’s office, which will take longer than 14 weeks to assess this EIS, may demand the same level of safety at Olympic Dam.

If you walk around Olympic Dam now, you’ll see a mountain of tailings from the existing mine. It’s piled 30 metres high – the same height as a six-storey building – over four square kilometres. The new expanded mine could produce more dust than the average home vacuum cleaner has to handle – 70 million tonnes of tailings every year.

A RIGHT ROYAL FUTURE

The EIS is a statement of environmental impact, but it will also address royalties – the money the company pays the state to mine the ore. According to calculations done by SA Unions, mining royalties in this state are less than half those in other mining states, with only 3.5 per cent here compared with 7.5 per cent in WA for bauxite and iron ore, and seven to 10 per cent in Queensland.

So what’s the next step? BHP will hold a series of Eyre Peninsula and local town meetings from late this month, explaining its proposal and why it says the environmental risks are miniscule. Meanwhile scientists, economists, environmentalists, fishing groups and pastoralists will speed-read the document and make a response. BHP is then obliged to consider those responses and deliver its own verdict on the submissions. That’s when the fun starts.

When the final EIS, the supplement, is complete and released it will be assessed by state and federal governments. The Independent Weekly believes that this process will not be complete before the next state election due in March 2010. That means SA will go to the polls not knowing the government’s response to “the biggest document ever produced in this state” or the biggest mining project this country has ever seen.

Nor will we know how governments are going to deal with environmental issues which touch on global questions such as Australia’s part in the nuclear cycle, national demands such as energy requirements, and local threats such as a briny Spencer Gulf.

So here’s a prediction. Tomorrow’s EIS will say the project can go ahead on environmental grounds. The company will start moving to begin expansion and hope for a global economic recovery to coincide with increased production. BHP will pass the break-even point on its multi-billion investment within the first two decades, and after that it’s money in the bank all the way down to the year 2100.

But first, there’ll be new legislation presented in State Parliament to legalise the process. It will be a new form of the 1982 Roxby Downs Indenture Ratification Act. It will, once again, over-ride every other Act of Parliament passed up to now and into the future. The first that South Australians see of that legislation will be after the state election.

And BHP Billiton’s Olympic Dam will have an economic and environmental impact that is synonymous with mining on this scale: incomparable and unimaginable.

http://www.independentweekly.com.au/news/local/news/general/olympic-dam-eis-impact-of-the-worlds-biggest-mine/1501992.aspx?storypage=7

BHP’s Olympic Dam mine to kickstart recovery

Jamie Walker and Michael Owen | May 02, 2009

Article from: The Australian
BHP Billiton has shrugged off the global economic blues to press ahead with plans to turn its Olympic Dam mine in South Australia into the largest open cut on earth and help kick the economy back into prosperity.

A 4600-page environmental impact statement, released by the company yesterday, set out an ambitious timetable for the conversion of the copper, gold, silver and uranium mine from underground to pit operations.

Work would start as early as April next year on the multi-billion-dollar upgrade.

Under BHP Billiton’s best-case scenario, excavation of the 1km-deep mine pit, and possibly construction of a pipeline to supply a gas power plant, would be under way by July next year.

By that time, a mini-city known as Hiltaba Village would be rising in the desert to house the thousands of workers needed for the project. This would be in addition to the expansion of the existing township of Roxby Downs.

The mine’s workforce would double from 4000 to 8000 when it reached full capacity next decade.

By then, Olympic Dam would be the world’s biggest single producer of uranium and one of the biggest of copper.

While the company stressed it would not release costings until the expansion received necessary environmental approvals from federal and state governments, and was then approved by the BHP Billiton board, its determination to see through planning will be a confidence-booster for the resource sector, hit hard by the global financial turmoil and reduced commodities prices.

The open cut envisaged by BHP Billiton at Olympic Dam would become the biggest man-made hole on the planet and yield $1 trillion worth of ore over its century-long life, more than $100million of which would be paid in royalties to the South Australian Government. Production would lift six-fold from 12million tonnes of ore annually to 72 million tonnes after 2020.

The news was welcomed by residents of the nearby mining town of Roxby Downs, where the boom had turned to gloom amid recent job cuts at Olympic Dam and falling local property values.

BHP Billiton will seek state and federal approvals to export up to 1.6 million tonnes a year of powdery copper-based concentrate with a low-level uranium content of about 2000 parts per million.

South Australian Premier Mike Rann, backed by the Howard government, was initially sharply critical of the company’s plan to send the concentrate to China rather than refine it here.

Mr Rann adopted a more conciliatory note yesterday, welcoming the EIS.

“We will work with BHP Billiton to maximise the number of jobs here … the point is it hasnot yet been approved,” Mr Rann said.

The existing underground operation at Olympic Dam currently ranks it as the 16th-largest in copper and third in uranium in the world.

Underground mining can extract only about 25 per cent of the ore containing recoverable quantities of copper, uranium, gold and silver; an open pit would allow up to 98 per cent of the known ore body to be exploited.

The proposed cut operation would work in tandem with the existing underground mine. The current smelter would also be expanded, although not to the extent that would be the case if two-thirds of the copper concentrate produced was not sent to China for processing.

Concern for the struggling Australian Giant Cuttlefish, which breeds in the area and was said by some conservationists to have been threatened by discharge from the desalination plant, have been dismissed by BHP Billiton.

After a specially extended 14-week public consultation period on the EIS, which ends on August 7, BHP Billiton will provide federal and state governments with a supplementary report for assessment. If the expansion were approved, the company’s board would make a final decision early next year.

South Australian Mineral Resources Development Minister Paul Holloway yesterday said the Government was not blinded by the wealth on offer at Olympic Dam.

“If there are issues we do not believe have been addressed properly, then we will ask BHP to reconsider them and make appropriate amendments,” Mr Holloway said.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25416641-5006787,00.html

April 22, 2009 – 1:09PM

China’s need for uranium could be worth billions to Australia following an announcement it will start building five extra power plants this year.

This comes on top of 24 already under construction and 11 that are in operation.

Australia offers the most obvious solution to a shortage of uranium to fulfil its nuclear power ambitions, according to a Chinese analyst.

“There are not enough uranium resources in China to support the aggressive nuclear power development plan for the next 20 to 30 years,” Professor Liu Deshun, of China’s Institute of Nuclear and Energy Technology told Fairfax Media.

“Australia has the uranium resources that could be exported and in China we have the demand.”

The fast-tracking of China’s nuclear power plans stems from mounting concerns about climate change, energy security and the more immediate task of kick-starting the economy.

Minister for Resources Martin Ferguson told Fairfax he welcomed China’s move to fast-track nuclear power.

“It is this government’s policy to encourage the further development of the Australian uranium industry,” he said.

The move could prove a windfall for WA, following the Liberal government’s ending of a ban on uranium mining in the state shortly after their win in the September state election.

AAP
http://business.watoday.com.au/business/china-looks-to-australia-to-supply-uranium-20090422-af0m.html

Posted 2 hours 18 minutes ago

The Federal Government says it has no concerns about China expanding its use of uranium for nuclear power generation.

Australia’s mining industry is expecting China’s plans to build five more nuclear plants to create more opportunities for uranium exports.

The Resources and Energy Minister, Martin Ferguson, says the Government has an agreement with China on the safe use of Australian uranium.

“We will continue to export as much of our commodities we can, including uranium, to countries who are interested in purchasing our commodities,” he said.

“But obviously with respect to the issue of uranium, there are very clear demands from the Government… which guarantees the safe use of Australian uranium.”

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/04/22/2549294.htm?section=justin

By David Uren
The Australian
April 22, 2009 12:00am

THE International Monetary Fund has dashed hopes of an early world economic recovery, warning that the credit crunch will be deep and long-lasting, with the worst yet to come.
With the IMF set to issue today a formal forecast that Australia faces recession this year, Kevin Rudd confirmed yesterday that next month’s Budget would contain a third stimulus package to cushion the worst impact of the downturn.

And Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens yesterday echoed the Prime Minister’s admission the nation was already in recession.

The IMF believes the financial crisis is entering a dangerous new phase, with massive government budget deficits making it impossible for banks and companies to raise money, The Australian reports.

This will particularly affect countries such as Australia that depend on international capital markets to finance the banking system.

The fund’s review of world financial stability released last night said nations relying on wholesale financial markets risked “more rapid, disorderly deleveraging” in which bank lending could be abruptly slashed.

However, Mr Stevens yesterday expressed confidence that Australia would ride out the recession with its banks and government finances in good shape.

“There are rather few countries that have the potential to offer so attractive a proposition to international capital, and to their own citizens, over the years ahead,” he said.

But Mr Stevens told a business conference in Adelaide that any reasonable person looking at the Australian economy “would come to the conclusion that the Australian economy, too, is in recession”.

However, he said there were “accumulating signs” that China, along with several other economies, were at a turning point that would support Australian commodity markets.

He said one of the reasons Australia’s downturn was less severe than those of other countries was that the huge commodity price gains of the past five years had not all been reversed, with Australia’s terms of trade still 40per cent above its long-term average.

However, the IMF believes the downturn will last for years, saying the weakness of lending in the US and Europe resembled that in Japan, where there was no growth for a decade.

The IMF will hold its twice-yearly members meeting in Washington this weekend.

Yesterday’s review of financial stability will be followed by the release of an updated world economic outlook today.

The IMF believes the financial crisis will result in bad debts of $US4.1 trillion, ($5.7 trillion), of which $US2.8 trillion would hit the banks.

Only one-third of those losses have so far been recognised. In a damning assessment of the solvency of the world banking system, the IMF says:

“If banks were to bring forward to today loss provisions for the next two years before expected earnings, the

US and European banks in aggregate would have tangible equity close to zero.”

The IMF estimates the banks will have to raise at least $US875 billion in additional capital, and possibly as much as $US1.7 billion, if they are to resume lending.

However, raising funds is becoming increasingly difficult, despite some recent improvement in interbank markets.

Read more at The Australian.
http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,25367789-462,00.html?referrer=email&source=eDM_newspulse

BHP Billinerals Adam Morton
April 22, 2009

AUSTRALIA’S big miners are pushing for a merger of 11 industry bodies in a bid to cut costs and centralise lobbying power under the Minerals Council of Australia.

Organisations targeted under the plan include the Australian Coal Association, the Australian Aluminium Council, the Australian Uranium Association and state and territory minerals councils.

A letter signed by chief executives at 11 companies, including BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Xstrata, says it would “improve national consistency” and reduce a combined operating cost topping $45 million a year.

“Quite simply, we will not continue funding organisations as separate entities to the Minerals Council of Australia as we have previously,” it says.

Sent on the eve of Easter, the letter has angered some industry bodies and their junior member companies.

Most declined to speak, but industry insiders said they feared concentrating power in Canberra would strip some commodities of representation and deny others a strong voice at state level, where much of their business lies.

Tony Fawdon, executive chairman of minerals explorer Diatreme, said the Queensland Resources Council had been crucial in the industry winning $50 million from its State Government in 2006.

He said the national minerals council sat in an ivory tower with little idea of what happened at state level.

“Frankly, I don’t think the (minerals council) is going to have any practicality at all — the bigger the company, the bigger the chamber, the less hands-on the practitioners are at the top of it,” he said. “How are you going to cut up a very, very thin cake of funding across the states?”

Minerals Council chief executive Mitch Hooke said the plan was a commonsense approach that would “enhance regional capacity, not diminish it”.

He said the states would continue to be represented by branches within the national council, as Victoria had been since a merger in 2004. The Northern Territory Resources Council had already volunteered to take part.

“The goal is alignment of advocacy, the goal is improved efficiency and effectiveness,” Mr Hooke said. “If Victoria is anything to go by, the regions are richer for working within the national secretariat while maintaining autonomy to deal with the state issues.”

Mr Fawdon said this meant little: the Victorian minerals council was “pretty toothless”, unlike its counterparts in Queensland, South Australia and Western Australia.

Mr Hooke will convene an implementation committee to be chaired by former Newmont executive Paul Dowd.

Other companies backing the plan are Anglo Coal, Downer EDI, Barrick Gold, Minara Resources, Newcrest Mining, Ausminerals, Thiess and Newmont Asia Pacific.

Several industry bodies declined to comment.

http://business.theage.com.au/business/mining-giants-to-combine-power-20090421-ae3x.html

Jamie Freed
April 21, 2009

NEARLY one in five Rio Tinto investors has voted against the company’s remuneration report in a revolt by Australian shareholders at the mining giant’s annual meeting in Sydney.

In the latest example of investor angst after a tumultuous year, high-profile director and Melbourne business luminary Sir Rod Eddington was returned to the Rio board despite 63 per cent of Australian shareholders voting against him. His position was assured by support from investors in Britain and China.

But new chairman Jan du Plessis promised to reach out to shareholders as a vote approaches on a proposed $US19.5 billion ($A27.5 billion) investment in the world’s third-largest mining company by Chinalco. Mr du Plessis, who will meet a group of shareholders in London next month, said he was committed to the deal.

“I will go out of my way to find out what people really think and what people really feel,” he said, after he was elected chairman, succeeding Paul Skinner.

The 400 or so mostly retail investors at the meeting could barely contain their anger over the miner’s debt-fuelled purchase of Alcan, its refusal to engage with merger proposals from BHP Billiton and its decision to turn to Chinalco to help it out of its financial quandry.

The tone of the meeting was in stark contrast to Rio’s annual meeting in Brisbane last year, when a generally satisfied bunch of shareholders had plenty of praise for their board and not one suggested the board engage with BHP.

Since then, metal prices have plunged and the Alcan purchase has weighed on the company like an albatross.

But despite shareholder outrage over the Chinalco deal, Rio did not make clear how any of the objections would lead to a change of the terms or the board’s recommendation.

From the investor reaction to date, it seems there is a chance of the proposal being voted down. Such a vote would cause serious problems for Rio, which has already signed a binding deal with Chinalco.

“For the moment, the deal is as it stands,” Mr du Plessis said. “We are waiting for the (Foreign Investment Review Board) process to complete itself. We are listening to shareholders and at the end of that we will put a package of proposals to shareholders to consider at that time.”

As shareholders vented their anger yesterday, the outgoing chairman, Paul Skinner, appeared to tacitly admit for the first time that the 3.4-shares-for-1 bid from BHP — once deemed by chief executive Tom Albanese to be “ballparks” away from fair value — would not significantly undervalue Rio in today’s market.

“Against the background of commodity and financial markets as they stood during the currency of that offer, the view of this board was that the value of our interest in any potential combination was not adequately recognised,” Mr Skinner said. “We now live in a different world, in a different state. The relative values all look different for a whole set of reasons.”

Mr Skinner also noted that, in a shareholder vote at the time, 97 per cent had supported the Alcan purchase.

The negative comments about the Chinalco deal and the board’s previous decisions — along with 19 per cent of the register voting against the remuneration report — show Rio shareholders are no longer as trusting. One shareholder asked Mr Skinner if the Chinalco deal could in time look as foolish as the decision to buy Alcan at the top of the market.

“There are no guarantees in this world,” Mr Skinner quipped. “Life would be a lot simpler if there were.”

With BLOOMBERG
http://business.theage.com.au/business/rio-shareholders-revolt-20090420-acoj.html