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And no doubt the population of other states will also grow.

At the same time, we will see changes in populations distribution, as well as changes in the distribiution of economic activity – inland – with the growth in mining – and a buildup along transport corridors. I wonder how the necessary infrastructure will be financed.



April 24, 2012 – 10:23AM

Victoria’s population is expected to soar to 7.3 million. 

Victoria’s population is predicted to soar and the fastest-growing suburbs will be the city’s outer suburban growth areas and the CBD, Docklands and Maribyrnong. A new report, Victoria in Future 2012, shows that the state’s population is expected to grow from 5.6 million to 7.3 million over the next 20 years, an average annual growth rate of 1.3 per cent.

 Melbourne’s population is expected to grow at the same speed, from 4.1 million to 5.4 million, while regional Victoria’s growth rate will be slightly slower, at 1.2 per cent.

The report’s map shows that in parts of the state’s west, the population will actually shrink.

This growth in the state is expected to exert greater pressure on transport and other infrastructure, which is already struggling to cope with its current patronage. Planning Minister Matthew Guy said these figures take account of the phenomenal population growth in Victoria, particularly in Melbourne, which is was due to a spike in overseas immigration.

Over the next 20 years, growth in Melbourne is expected to be strongest in the areas of Cardinia, Casey, Hume, Melton, Whittlesea and Wyndham, as well as inner-city areas such as the City of Melbourne, Port Phillip, Yarra and Maribyrnong. Population growth is also expected in the regional cities of Geelong, Ballarat, Bendigo, Latrobe Valley, Shepparton, Mildura, Wodonga and Warrnambool.

Mr Guy scrapped the former Brumby government’s Melbourne 2030 planning strategy when he was elected and is currently preparing a new planning strategy. The minister says this will include new affordable homes and infrastructure but did not release any further details today.

Other keys points:

— The population of Victoria was 5.6 million at 30 June 2011. This was 72,000 higher than was projected in 2008.

 — Immigration is expected to be the largest driver of Victoria’s population growth over the next 40 years.

— All local government areas in Melbourne will increase in population.

— Victoria’s population is ageing, with the median age expected to increase from 37 years in 2011 to 41 years in 2051. This trend is influenced by the large group of people born between 1945 and 1971.

— The proportion of the population aged 65 years and older is projected to increase from 13.9% to 22.1% by 2051. Victoria’s household growth rate is projected to exceed population growth rate as the average household size gradually decreases over the projection period.


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